Paper experiment · Public record
The 0DTE Ledger
One 0DTE QQQ options suggestion is generated each market weekday morning, from overnight Nasdaq-100 futures action, the prior day’s QQQ range, and options data. It is graded the same afternoon by frozen rules.
No orders are ever placed. This is a research record, not financial advice and not a recommendation service.
The rules
Rules version 1.2. The rules are frozen between scheduled reviews. The next review is Thursday, 17 December 2026. A review may propose changes; it applies none by itself.
- One pick per day. One contract, one target, stated before the 06:30 PT open. No alternates and no hedging menus.
- Win or loss. A day is a WIN if QQQ touches the stated target intraday in the regular session. For a call, the session high must reach the target. For a put, the session low must reach the target. Otherwise the day is a LOSS. Prints outside the regular session do not grade.
- Grading basis (v1.1). Graded returns are measured off the contract’s opening print, listed in the table as Entry. The previous day’s close is context only. It is never the denominator, because on a gap day it is a price nobody could have paid at the open.
- Two returns for every day. Max return is the contract’s intraday high, listed as Peak, measured against Entry. Expiry return is the contract’s value at expiry, listed as Expiration, measured against Entry.
- Shadow track (v1.2). Each day is also graded a second way, under an exit rule defined on QQQ itself. The opening range is QQQ’s high and low over 06:30 to 06:45 PT. For a call, the stop is the opening-range low. For a put, the stop is the opening-range high. The stop arms at 06:45 PT. The shadow exit is the first of: target touch, a trade through the stop after arming, or expiry. The shadow result is reported alongside the frozen grade. It never replaces it.
The record to date
Shadow track, kept separate
7 shadow days · 2 target-touch exits · 4 stop-outs · 1 expiry exit · 3 shadow wins (positive shadow return) · Average shadow return +2.2%
The two tracks answer different questions. The frozen grade asks whether QQQ reached the target. The shadow track asks what an exit rule on the underlying would have returned. Do not combine them.
Day by day
Newest first. Losses are shown at the same size and in the same format as wins. Prices are per contract, in dollars.
Entry is the contract’s opening print and the grading basis. Peak is the contract’s intraday high. Expiration is the contract’s value at expiry, which for a 0DTE contract is its intrinsic value at the close.
| Date | Contract | Target | QQQ range / close | Result | Entry | Peak | Expiration | Max return | Expiry return | Shadow result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | QQQ 700 Put, exp 2026-10-30 | 690.00 | 683.45 to 698.63 / 690.53 | WIN | 5.26 | 16.54 | 9.47 | +214.4% | +80.0% | Stop-out 06:58 PT, exit 4.00, -24.0% |
| 2026-10-29 | QQQ 722 Put, exp 2026-10-29 | 712.00 | 711.62 to 718.07 / 715.28 | WIN | 7.09 | 10.70 | 6.72 | +50.9% | -5.2% | Target touch 06:35 PT, exit 9.64, +36.0% |
| 2026-10-28 | QQQ 725 Call, exp 2026-10-28 | 728.00 | 720.30 to 726.12 / 725.48 | LOSS | 2.78 | 3.29 | 0.48 | +18.3% | -82.7% | Stop-out 06:45 PT, exit 2.05, -26.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | QQQ 715 Call, exp 2026-10-27 | 720.00 | 713.59 to 722.86 / 721.24 | WIN | 2.20 | 7.85 | 6.24 | +256.8% | +183.6% | Stop-out 06:51 PT, exit 2.24, +1.8% |
| 2026-10-26 | QQQ 705 Call, exp 2026-10-26 | 715.00 | 705.58 to 715.25 / 712.12 | WIN | 4.26 | 10.33 | 7.12 | +142.5% | +67.1% | Target touch 08:01 PT, exit 10.22, +139.9% |
| 2026-10-23 | QQQ 705 Call, exp 2026-10-23 | 715.00 | 701.16 to 709.30 / 704.39 | LOSS | 2.68 | 5.20 | 0.00 | +94.0% | -100.0% | Expiry exit, exit 0.00, -100.0% (retro) |
| 2026-10-22 | QQQ 720 Put, exp 2026-10-22 | 705.00 | 701.90 to 715.43 / 704.59 | WIN | 7.22 | 18.06 | 15.41 | +150.1% | +113.4% | Stop-out 06:57 PT, exit 6.34, -12.2% (retro) |
Retro means the shadow grade for that day was computed when the shadow track was introduced in v1.2, from the intraday data then available. It is labelled, not hidden.
Expiry return by day
How to read this
The sample is small. Its exact size is the graded-day count shown in the record banner above. A win rate on a sample that size is a description of those days only. It is not a forecast, and it is not evidence that any future day will resemble them.
The unit under assessment is the read, not the contract. The read is the morning judgement about where QQQ would trade that day. The contract is one limited way of expressing that read, and its price path can diverge from the read in either direction. The table itself makes the point without any commentary: it contains a win that expired at a loss against Entry, and a loss that rose 94.0% at its Peak before expiring worthless.
Past days are never edited after grading. Corrections, if one is ever required, will be added as a new dated note, not written over the original row. The commit history of this site’s repository is the timestamp proof of when each row was published and what it said at the time.
Returns on 0DTE options are large in both directions by construction. A contract that can rise several hundred percent in a session can also expire at zero in the same session, and rows in the table above have approached or reached that outcome. Read the Expiration column before the Peak column.